Marginal Footnotes


Tomorrow’s Conventional Election Wisdom Today!
September 28, 2006, 10:06 am
Filed under: Elections, Midterm Elections, Politics, Uncategorized

The NYT reports breathlessly today that

Six weeks before Election Day, th Democrats suddenly face a map with unexpected opportunities in their battle for control of the Senate.

Suddenly, a map! with opportunities! Democrats could win! Ken Mehlperson can relax now, what with a New York Times reporter bespeaking doom for his party, there is certain to be an uptick in the republican donating spirit.

Of course the rest of the piece systematically deconstructs the actual likelihood of what is merely suggested in the lead. Take for example:

a shift in the Senate was always considered a long shot this year . . . [but a Democratic takeover] is at least plausible.

“Anybody who says there’s no way the Democrats could regain control of the Senate, that’s just wishful thinking,” said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster active in numerous House and Senate races. “But there’s a long way between could and would, and the Republican resource advantage is just now coming to bear.”

Republicans say they have the money not only to defend their seats, but also to put Democrats on the defensive in Maryland, New Jersey and elsewhere.

Mr. [Chuck] Schumer said, “The 800-pound gorilla is the money the R.N.C. is pouring into those [Ohio, Missouri, and Tennessee] races.”

And so on and so forth. What the article does sufficiently well, since it quotes so extensively from GOP operatives, is mingle the increasingly less remote prospect of a Democratic Senate takeover with a tinge of Republican campaign confidence. It would be a terrific fundraising letter, and I’m sure it will be.

–mpd

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